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Summer in India has always been hot. Increasingly, it's testing the limits of human survival. As temperatures have climbed across the world's most populous nation in recent weeks, more than a dozen people died at an event in central India and thousands crowded hospitals with heatstroke symptoms. Hundreds of schools were closed and the mercury is still rising: Temperatures will hover around 45C (113F) across South Asia.

The most immediate fix is mercifully affordable, at least in the short-term.

Demand for air conditioners is surging in markets where both incomes and temperatures are rising, populous places like India, China, Indonesia and the Philippines.

By one estimate, the world will add 1 billion ACs before the end of the decade. The market is projected to nearly double before 2040. That's good for measures of public health and economic productivity; it's unquestionably bad for the climate, and a global agreement to phase out the most harmful coolants could keep the appliances out of reach of many of the people who need them most.

The logic behind the AC boom is simple. Economists note a spike in sales when annual household incomes near $10,000, a tipping point many of the world's hottest places touched recently or will soon. The Philippines passed the $10,000 threshold roughly last year; Indonesia within the last decade. In India, where more than 80% of the population doesn't yet have access to air conditioning, per capita gross domestic product—adjusted for purchasing power—will top $9,000 this year for the first time.

So the sales have grown more than 15 times.

This development has far-reaching consequences for public health, well-being and economic growth. Purchasing an AC is a pivot away from poverty for individuals and for their communities. People in hotter countries, which also tend to be poorer ones, suffer from worse sleep and impaired cognitive performance, both of which drag on productivity and output.

In a study looking at thousands of Indian factories with different cooling arrangements, researchers found that productivity fell by around 2% for every degree Celsius increase. 

 The declines due to heat over the past 30 years may equate to roughly 1% of India's GDP, or about $32 billion.

But expanding AC coverage too quickly also threatens to worsen the crisis it's responding to. Most units use a refrigerant that's far more damaging than carbon dioxide. The nations where demand is growing fastest remain deeply reliant on coal-fired power, and most people can only afford the cheapest, most energy-inefficient units.

If efficiency standards don't improve, "then the planet will literally be cooked", according to experts.

Wealthier, more temperate countries have tightened regulations on ACs, requiring better energy efficiency and less-toxic coolants. That adds to the cost of units, making those kinds of measures less palatable where affordability is paramount. International climate bodies are pressuring developing countries to lower their carbon footprint, but India and its peers point out that they still contribute far less to global emissions than places like the U.S., where nine out of ten people have access to AC.

We're facing a situation where extraordinarily harsh conditions are being imposed on growing economies. And they are fighting back!

For many, access to an AC is a matter of survival. For some poor who live in tin sheds, the heat is unbearable. Poor children get fevers from the heat. 

But the poor can't afford efficient ACs. But it no longer is a luxury, it is a matter of survival.

For some AC companies, the growing demand for ACs could be quashed by regulation designed to slow climate change. Part of the problem will be solved if and when countries move toward cleaner sources of power. The other issue—the refrigerants that turn that electricity into cool air—is trickier.

One of the most common coolants, hydrofluorocarbons, can have 1,000 times the warming potency of carbon dioxide. Scientists estimate that failing to drastically lower dependence on HFCs could result in half a degree Celsius of warming by the end of the century, an enormous contribution to a rise that would trigger deadlier storms, droughts and, yes, more heatwaves.

There are less environmentally harmful coolants on the market. AC companies notice that if you don't have a green refrigerant, you are going to be the loser. So cooling companies are hunting for new options.

 The alternatives are often more expensive, though.

For India, the challenge is to implement cleaner technology before millions of new consumers purchase the dirtier ACs, locking in their use for another decade.

Balancing things is becoming more and more difficult for developing countries like India.

Source: 2023 Bloomberg L.P.
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

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