Why Doomsday clock represents scientists' worry about the world

We are just three minutes from midnight! That is what doomsday clock says now. And it is set by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (1).

The Doomsday Clock is a design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making. It is a metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet.

There is no physical Doomsday Clock. Click on the clock face at the top right of the Bulletin homepage for an interactive timeline of the clock’s history and the reasoning behind each resetting.

The folks who set the Doomsday Clock are smart and serious people, and they're worried about legitimate threats the world is facing. Every time the Clock’s minute hand moves, the world takes notice of it. Even thinking about it is scary to several millions around the world. If the clock gets people talking about these issues, that's excellent. That is what this watch is created for.

But, is the situation really that bad?

The clock was created by an artist Martyl Langsdorf in 1947! Yes, you read it right! She listened to the scientists who had worked on the Nuclear Bomb, as they passionately debated the consequences of the new technology and their responsibility to inform the public, she felt their sense of urgency. So she sketched a clock to suggest that we didn’t have much time left to get atomic weapons under control. When the Clock was first created, the minute hand was set at seven minutes to midnight. The choice of that number was not even remotely scientific. Over the last 68 years, the Bulletin has reset the minute hand on the Doomsday Clock 21 times, most recently this year when they moved it from five minutes to midnight to three.

The Clock doesn’t actually gauge anything measurable. The various threats the Clock concerns itself with—nuclear war and climate change are the biggest ones—have completely different timescales. “One minute” of this clock represents anything from a day to a hundred years! But what is important about it is it actually measures the worry of the scientists about the state of the world we are in right now! And who are these scientists? You can find the members of the science and security board here.

The board’s dozen or so nuclear physicists, climate scientists with deep knowledge and policy experts get together twice a year to discuss world events and reset the clock as necessary and tell the world about it. It's the best judgment of some top experts who really know these situations at a topmost level. These experts talk amongst themselves, and also check in with other experts, including the Bulletin’s board of sponsors. This includes no fewer than 16 Nobel laureates!

Science and Security Board of the Bulletin tracks numbers and statistics—looking, for example, at the number and kinds of nuclear weapons in the world, the parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the degree of acidity in our oceans, and the rate of sea level rise. The board also takes account of leaders’ and citizens’ efforts to reduce dangers, and efforts by institutions—whether of governments, markets, or civil society organizations—to follow through on negotiated agreements.  Then they come to a judgment that sums up what could happen if leaders and citizens don’t take action to treat the conditions.The Bulletin is like a doctor making a diagnosis.

And how pertinent are their worries?

The nuclear stock piles still exist and some of them are with failed Nations and the ones ruled by dictators. And we have no clue about the circumstances under which they would be used. As long as nuclear weapons exist and can be used, the risk that we could destroy civilization also exists.

There is good reason to believe a massive thermonuclear war would throw enough debris into the atmosphere to take the planet into a cold, dark nuclear winter. Deprived of sunlight, plants could die en masse, destroying the bottom of the food chain and  starving all living beings.

Although Paris climate change talks are a major step towards a clean world, our earlier experiences tell us people several times  don't keep their promises for various reasons.

As a consequence we run the risk of famines, droughts, mass migrations of climate refugees. As long as Earth’s climate continues to change, we are at risk of suffering the potential consequences, in particular disruptions in the environment—such as extended droughts, changes in growing seasons, sea level rise, and fisheries die-offs—that threaten human survival.

Therefore, scientists think we are still in a bad state. A fair amount of uncertainty about exactly what’s going to happen, and how fast it is going to happen made the scientists set the clock at three minutes to midnight this year.

Notice the concerns of the experts, take them seriously and act now to save our world. That is what intelligent human beings must do.

References:
1. http://thebulletin.org/